Learning
Explainers
23 plain-English explainers on the ideas behind every briefing. Each one covers how the mechanism works, the history behind it, and how markets have behaved in the past.
The economy
Growth, jobs, prices and the cycle they move through.
- Understanding Inflation: CPI, PCE and PPIHow inflation is measured and how markets react to each release.6 min
- Employment Data: The Jobs ReportPayrolls, unemployment and wages, and why the Fed watches them.4 min
- Recessions: Causes, Indicators and MarketsHow recessions are dated, what causes them, and the warning signs.6 min
- StagflationWhen growth stalls and prices keep rising, and why it traps central banks.5 min
- Market Regimes: The Four QuadrantsGrowth and inflation as four regimes, and how assets behaved in each.4 min
Central banks
Who sets interest rates, how, and how they communicate.
- Monetary Policy: How the Fed Influences MarketsFrom the policy rate to mortgages, bond yields and share prices.10 min
- The Fed’s Dual MandateStable prices vs maximum employment, and what happens when they conflict.5 min
- Forward GuidanceHow words about future policy move interest rates today.4 min
- Quantitative Easing and TighteningBond buying, balance sheet runoff, and the 2013 and 2019 scares.6 min
- Central Banks Beyond the FedThe ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan, and why their gaps move currencies.6 min
Bonds, rates and credit
The price of money over time, and the price of lending to companies.
- Interest Rates and DurationHow sensitive bonds, shares and property are to rate changes.5 min
- Real vs Nominal RatesWhy the rate after inflation is the one that moves valuations.4 min
- The Yield CurveWhy the curve inverts, and how reliable it has been as a recession signal.6 min
- Deficits, Bond Supply and the Term PremiumHow government borrowing reaches long-term yields.5 min
- Credit and SpreadsInvestment grade, high yield, and what spreads say about default risk.4 min
- Private CreditLending outside the banks, why it grew, and the risks analysts watch.5 min
Markets
Shares, currencies, commodities, and how they behave under stress.
- Equity Valuation: P/E, PEG and MultiplesHow share valuations are measured and what past extremes looked like.5 min
- Currency Markets and the DollarWhat drives the dollar, carry trades, and currency effects on returns.4 min
- Oil and Energy ShocksHow energy prices feed inflation and growth, from 1973 to 2022.5 min
- Real Assets: Gold, Commodities and TIPSHow real assets have behaved when inflation rises.5 min
- Geopolitical ShocksHow wars, sanctions and tariffs move markets, and which effects last.5 min
- Liquidity and VolatilityReading the VIX, liquidity stress, and what past spikes taught.5 min
- Correlation BreakdownsWhy diversification can fail in a crisis.4 min
Educational content only. Explainers describe how markets have behaved in the past and are not investment advice.